A New Era – The Patriots Approach to the 2024 NFL Draft
Eliot Wolf, per ESPN
After a disappointing 4-13 season, the Patriots now find themselves holding the third pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. There are numerous holes to fix (most of which are on the offensive side of the ball) but none greater than at quarterback, after the underwhelming play of McCorkle Jones in 2023 led to his being dealt back home to Jacksonville after the season. Should they hang onto the pick, a quarterback at three seems to be a no-brainer, despite the presence of generational wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., another positional need for the Pats. Today we’ll discuss the multitude of needs for the Patriots, and who they may look towards to fill the holes left behind by legendary head coach (but less than legendary GM) Bill Belichick.
Jacoby Brissett, per Adam Glanzman, Getty Images
The Needs
As mentioned, there is no greater need than quarterback for the Patriots. Should it go unaddressed, Jacoby Brissett would likely be the starter week 1 with Bailey Zappe waiting in the wings, and while Brissett is a decent bridge quarterback, that is far from a recipe for success in 2024. The second greatest need is at wide receiver, as the team sorely lacks a true X on the outside. Hopes of Devante Parker filling that role came up extremely short of expectations and Parker now finds himself fighting for the third spot in Philadelphia with Parris Campbell. The current options on the outside are KJ Osborn and Kendrick Bourne, and, while not abysmal, neither has the profile of a true X. Either could make a serviceable Z but would be a mid-tier option at best in that role. Pop Douglas seems locked into the slot role, and he was promising enough in his rookie season for me to not consider slot receiver as a pressing need, so I’ll focus on prospects with X characteristics. The next in the hierarchy of needs would be tackle. After paying Mike Onwenu, he figures to start at right tackle (where he played 77% of his snaps in 2023), despite not having typical tackle size. The left tackle spot is completely up for grabs, with Conor McDermott, Vederian Lowe, and Chuks Okorafor all vying for the spot. These are hardly serviceable options, particularly when protecting a rookie quarterback. These are undoubtedly the three key positions that need to be addressed. The interior of the line is in decent shape but would benefit from depth. The tight end position is in OK shape between Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper. Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson are a decent tandem in the backfield, although it would make sense to bolster the position given Stevenson will be a free agent after the season.
The defensive unit is in pretty good shape, although key players within every group will be free agents next year, including Matt Judon, Christian Barmore, Jabrill Peppers, Jahlani Tavai, and Jonathan Jones. The only true question is at nickel, where Marcus Jones is currently slated to start. We’ve seen promising flashes from Jones, but I would still consider him unproven and insurance at the position couldn’t hurt. Otherwise, the team would be best served adding developmental pieces across the defense should some current starters walk next offseason.
Drake Maye, per Grant Halverson, Getty Images
First Round
Stand for something or fall for anything, they say. ‘Stand for something or die in the morning’ is also a good substitute for Kendrick Lamar fans. While the Patriots’ front office may (and hopefully does) have a strong preference at which quarterback they’d select between Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and even JJ McCarthy, picking third will not give them the choice, as they’ll be in a position where they hypothetically must take whomever Washington did not. In a way, the third spot is enviable – quarterback evaluation is notoriously difficult and scouting departments are historically quite bad at it. Being forced into taking the remainder of Maye or Daniels provides somewhat of an out for the front office if things don’t go to plan. I admit it cowardly, but I don’t have a strong preference between the two. I would not take JJ McCarthy with the third pick.
Daniels is electric as a runner and has pinpoint accuracy throwing the ball down field but will turn 24 during his rookie season and his struggles under pressure are a major concern. Historically, quarterbacks who had struggles under pressure at the college level and took a lot of sacks have a very poor hit rate in the NFL, and it’s not likely the Patriots will be able to appropriately address the left tackle spot this offseason. Maye, on the other hand, enters the league at 21 years of age, and has excellent arm talent and plus athleticism. Maye’s velocity when throwing in the middle of the field is a trait that typically translates extremely well at the next level, but there are definite concerns about accuracy and Maye had struggles of his own when facing pressure. The only other options that should be considered are either trading back (which I’m not opposed to if the return is substantial) or selecting Marvin Harrison Jr., who would provide that generational talent as an X receiver, something New England has lacked since Randy Moss left in 2010. The obvious question would then be who is throwing Maserati Marv the ball for years to come. It’s only so often a franchise finds itself in position to select a top-tier quarterback, and the Patriots are somewhat forced to do so now that they’re in that position.
Jordan Morgan, per Mark J. Robilas, USA Today
Second Round
The Patriots second selection is 34th overall, and assuming they take a quarterback in the first, are best served addressing either the tackle or receiver position. Should they opt to take Maserati Marv instead, the game plan would likely be hoping that Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix are available in this spot, barring a trade up to select one of the two on day one. I do like both players, but they’re older prospects who don’t possess the traits that the top-tier quarterback prospects do. Going this route may be delaying the inevitable and hoping that you find yourself in a position again to take a blue-chip quarterback prospect.
With the way the positional talent in this draft is structured, the Patriots are probably best off taking a tackle at this spot. This is a good tackle class, but most prospects even outside of the first round are more developmental in nature, while the Pats need a solution now. The dream scenario would be one of the guys considered a first-round talent dropping to this spot, which has a chance of occurring. If anyone were to drop, I would think it’s likely to be Tyler Guyton, who is an evaluator’s dream from an athletic perspective but still a bit raw. That would be a home-run selection, and while he may be a bit shaky early on, he would at least provide an answer at tackle for years to come. It is worth noting, though, that Guyton has very little experience playing left tackle. The next best options would be Jordan Morgan and Kingsley Suamatia, who both have experience at the left tackle spot. Morgan would be a more ideal fit as he was extremely productive for Arizona at the position and is the most NFL-ready option, although there are some concerns about his play strength and his arm length. Some evaluators see him as a guard at the next level. Suamatia is an intriguing option due to age and athleticism but is more of a developmental prospect and is probably not ready to start at the NFL level due to inexperience.
Because the receiver class is so deep and many of the prospects are ready to contribute right away, it probably makes the most sense to wait until the third round to take a receiver. This is a bit painful as the organization runs the risk of missing out on impressive prospects at 34, but the need for tackle is dire and will be very difficult to address later in the draft. Players like AD Mitchell, Xavier Legette, Troy Franklin, and Keon Coleman all have a decent chance of being available at this spot and will be hard to pass on. Each possesses game-breaking ability at the position and an X profile (although Coleman to a lesser extent due to an inability to separate in man coverage), however the next tier of receivers is still very promising.
Javon Baker, per Kevin Jairaj, USA Today
Third Round
The Patriots third round selection is at 68, and while it is hard to anticipate who will and will not be available at this spot, we can at least try to project. If the Patriots wait until this spot to take a tackle, Blake Fisher, Patrick Paul and Kiran Amegadjie may be suitors. Amegadjie is more projection, but he had great success playing left tackle in the FCS and is very athletic with extremely long arms. The jump from FCS to NFL will be a difficult one, but Amegadjie has the tools to be successful. He may need some time to adjust and thus isn’t as ideal an option for the tackle-starved Patriots. Standing over 6’7, Patrick Paul is an athletic monster at left tackle who just finished his third consecutive first team All-Conference season at Houston. Paul is one of the more NFL ready prospects at the position, but still has work to do on his fundamentals. I love the fit with the Pats here but would not bet on his availability at the 68th pick. Blake Fisher is a young prospect who played on the right side at Notre Dame opposite Joe Alt who has two full years of starting experience. Fisher is another intriguing developmental prospect who is probably not yet ready to start in the NFL. His footwork needs work, and he can be inconsistent at times, but he projects to be a solid starting tackle. It is notable for the Patriots that he has almost no experience at left tackle.
Given the depth of this receiving class, there should be very talented players still on the board that fit the Patriots’ needs outside. Ja’Lynn Polk out of Washington is one such player. While not a straight-line burner, Polk is an explosive athlete who constantly works to find soft spots in opposing defenses. Polk possesses some of the best hands in the class and pairs it with excellent contested catch ability. Polk plays with a grit that coaching staffs will love and does have the tools to potentially be the number one option. Tez Walker is a bigger, more athletic option that may be on the board who had flashes of excellence but problems with consistency. Walker needs to work on his route running but is a dangerous vertical threat who can stack coverage. If Walker can become more consistent, get stronger at the catch point, and improve his route running (particularly in the intermediate and short-yard game) he could develop into one of the better receivers in the class, however he is a bit of a wild card. A final option who has been a late riser on draft boards is Javon Baker out of UCF. A transfer from Alabama, Baker has few flaws in his game despite not being a difference-maker as an athlete. Baker is effective in changing speeds in his routes and uses plus instincts to constantly get open and win over the top. Baker’s play speed is oft touted by scouts and leads to wins in every part of the field. If given a chance, Baker could be very productive early in his career.
Cole Strange, per Kirby Lee, USA Today
The Patriots own all three of their own picks in the first three rounds, positioning them near the top of each round. While they probably won’t make themselves a contender with this draft alone, they can set themselves up well for the future. I personally think the best order of operations is QB-OT-WR, but arguments for a different order can be made easily. What I don’t think is arguable is that these three groups are what need to be addressed in the first three rounds. I would love to see the front office be aggressive and move up to add talent to this roster in what I believe to be a very good draft class. Soon enough we’ll find out. Ah, draft day. It’s like a three-day Christmas for me. All we can do is have faith in the stewardship of the new regime and pray there’s no repeat of Cole Strange-like events on Thursday or Friday. Trust in Eliot, I guess?