Toss the Chalk
Three March Madness Upsets You Can Bet On
Achor Achor, per Samford University
There’s no better feeling than being the guy that ‘had’ the absolutely wild upset - this point has been discussed to no end. In most cases, having these picks is downright irresponsible. Why the hell did you have Fairleigh Dickinson over Purdue? Doesn’t matter. Your only option if you’ve been put in this position is to own it and claim superior intelligence; you knew something they didn’t. Flip the script. Why DIDN’T they have FDU?? It was an obvious upset for those paying attention.
We fill out brackets to pick the upsets, and shrewdly picked upsets can be quite profitable in Vegas as well. In 2014, I guaranteed my high school gym teacher, an avid Duke supporter, that Mercer would beat Duke or I would do whatever he asked of me. Dangerous power to give to a gym teacher (if you catch my drift), but the proposition was there nonetheless. I had no reason to believe this was at all probable, but I had that feeling and took the stance confidently - and then when it happened, I looked like the damn oracle of NCAAB.
With all this said, I now stand before you tonight with three upset locks - all double-digit seeds taking home Ws - that are not just gut-feelings. These are scientific picks that you can take to the bank, send to your book, and tell your friends - all so you can look like the man who saw what was to come.
Kevin McCullar Jr., per Tom Dierberger, Sports Illustrated
The first may be the most bold, but with recent news that Kevin McCullar Jr., the leading scorer for Kansas, is officially out for the tournament, No. 13 Samford looks even more attractive against No. 4 Kansas. I bet Samford with points on Tuesday afternoon, which I locked in at +7.5 - the line has only tightened half a point to +7 since, but I anticipate it to continue to tighten ahead of Thursday’s 10PM ET tip. While Hunter Dickinson is expected to play, he is still banged up, and Achor Achor for Samford knows how to bang in the post. Plus, double first names are always a crowd pleaser (see: Bol Bol, Akok Akok). While Dickinson certainly has the height advantage (7’2 v. 6’9), help containing Dickinson can be expected from Samford freshman Riley Allenspach, who stands at 6’11. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, with Samford on fire as of late (Achor is averaging 26.5 and 11.5 over his last two) and Kansas getting blown out of the water consistently in their recent skid. Samford’s lack of big-game experience is concerning (one top 25 matchup this year, lost by more than 50 to Purdue), but I’ll take the hot hand here, on the back of an extremely high-powered and efficient offense.
Per Roberto E. Gonzalez, The Albuquerque Journal
Only a year after the school suspended basketball operations due to a player’s involvement in a shooting, No. 11 New Mexico is big-time back and ready to take down No. 6 Clemson. While Clemson has big wins under their belt in Alabama and UNC, the current rendition we see is one that is sputtering and limping it’s way into the buzzsaw that is New Mexico. A messiah of sorts to the Doug McDermott / Jimmer Freddette / Adam Morrison crowd (“he plays the game the right way!”), Joe Girard is nearly unstoppable when he’s Davis Clarke-level locked-in. However, there are multiple instances of Girard faltering this year, some coming as of late. 6’11 PJ Hall should also provide a formidable problem for Nelly Junior Joseph and the Lobos in the paint. However, New Mexico’s backcourt scores in bunches on the backs of Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr, and boasts one of the best offenses in the country statistically. Fresh off of a Mountain West title, New Mexico is hot, while Clemson is 10-10 in their last 20, and have lost three of their last four. This one has become less and less attractive to bet, as New Mexico now sits as a 2 point favorite, but lock this paper upset into your bracket for the work pool and feel good about it.
Terrence Edwards, per Nick King, Lansing State Journal
The last lock of the night is our goldilocks pick (at least according to Vegas) - with No. 12 James Madison University sitting at +5 against No. 5 Wisconsin, this one is not too hot, and not too cold, but juuuuust right for our fans who enjoy a side of, ahem, monetary action with their hoops. Wisconsin is an older squad, but has shown inconsistencies on the defensive side of the ball. While only a few days have passed since Wisconsin took down Purdue, they’re not far removed from losses against the likes of Indiana, Iowa, and Rutgers, either. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, JMU has this special trick they do that they like to call ‘never losing,’ and it’s been extremely effective. With the opening night win against Michigan State as their badge of legitimacy, the 31-win JMU squad is not one that any team should look forward to facing. While they may struggle matching up with Wisconsin’s size down low, their fast-paced, high-flying offense should push Wisconsin to its limits, and their stifling defense should allow the Dukes to take home their first March Madness victory.