Wake Up! – NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers (Defense)
Five potential defensive steals that could go late in the NFL Draft
Mo Kamara, per Kyusung Gong, AP Photo
Franchises are built on day 1 of the NFL draft, but they’re maintained by discovering diamonds in the rough on day 3. The Patriots were the prime example for years and the Chiefs have continued that legacy, consistently fielding difference makers they selected in the later rounds. Sleepers aren’t usually obvious – there’s typically a reason they fall to where they do in the Draft, and these evaluations are given by folks with far more experience than I. With that said, I’ve identified five players on each side of the ball that I find very intriguing who are likely to fall to day 3. There’s some consistency to my criteria – I often look for players who are counted out for a specific trait (usually size or age) but are otherwise very productive players. Much to the chagrin of many, you’ll see that I also frequently site PFF grades. While not perfect, I do think they provide value and are a decent indication of success. I also won’t pretend to have watched every snap these guys have played, while PFF has. I also may or may not have worked there as a younger man and have belief in their system of evaluation.
I assign each player an ‘Alarm Level,’ from 1-10, which is an indication of how enthusiastic I am about the player’s prospects. You can see the scale below:
Alarm Level:
1 = Turn off the alarm and go back to bed
5 = 10-minute snooze
10 = Jump out of bed – it’s time for school
Without further ado, here are my five sleepers for the later stages of the 2023 NFL Draft on the defensive side of the ball, in no particular order.
Michael Hall Jr, per Adam Cairns, Columbus Dispatch
Michael Hall – DI, Ohio State
Hall has a legitimate chance to go on day 2, but ultimately his size is likely to make him an early day 3 selection. At 6’3, 290lbs, Hall is a bit of a tweener and isn’t scheme versatile. He’s best suited on the inside of a traditional 4-3, likely as a 3-tech taking advantage of slower guards. Hall’s burst and first step are impressive, and he excelled applying pressure to the passer through the interior. At just 20 years old, Hall’s skillset is more than intriguing and some of his reps at the Senior Bowl had evaluators buzzing. It’s unfortunate he didn’t test at the combine, as it would be nice to quantify the twitch you see on tape. In 2023, Hall posted a 77.2 PFF grade, including an 84.8 pass rush grade with an impressive 22 hurries. His size is unfortunate and difficult to overcome at the next level when he’ll be facing a different level of play strength, but his production against top competition and his youth are tantalizing. Someone will absolutely roll the dice on his skillset despite his size (Aaron Donald, anyone?) and it’s a bet I’d be willing to take. If he can add mass and core strength to his frame, he’ll be more effective stuffing gaps in the run and could become a serious problem for years to come.
Alarm Level: 8
Mo Kamara – EDGE, Colorado State
You’ve probably noticed by now that I have an affinity for undersized players. That isn’t necessarily the case, but I do believe that it can be mispriced and lead players who are otherwise very skilled and productive to fall further than they should. Mo Kamara fits this bill. The 2023 Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year, Kamara has been a quarterback’s worst nightmare for a few years playing on the edge for Colorado State. In ’23 alone, Kamara registered 14 sacks and 38 hurries on a 91.2 pass rushing grade and a lethal 19.4% pass rush win rate. An older prospect, Kamara is likely 23 or 24 years old. Kamara would be one of the smallest edge rushers in the NFL at 6’1, 248lbs, but his 32 3/8” arms help to make up for his lack of length otherwise. Kamara wins with raw power and his technique as a bull rusher is amongst the best in the class – the question is whether he can generate enough power to consistently win at the next level given his frame. He proved long speed and athleticism with a 4.57 40 at the combine but will need coaching to improve as a finesse rusher. Kamara will enter the league with substandard ability to stop the run, so will likely be relegated to a pass rushing role, however he has the ruthlessness to succeed at the next level. Given Kamara’s grit and determination as a pass rusher and developed bull rush move, I think Kamara is well worth gambling on despite size concerns and should provide value off the edge for years to come.
Alarm Level: 7
Cedric Gray, per Bob Donnan, USA Today
Cedric Gray – LB, North Carolina
Gray is an impressive prospect who has been a fixture of the UNC linebacking core for the last three years and will enter week 1 still 21 years of age. Gray was all over the field during his college career and made his presence known as a prolific tackler with good tools both in coverage and as a pass rusher. Named a second team All-American in 2022, Gray continued his momentum into 2023 on his way to 121 total tackles. During the Senior Bowl, I thought Gray looked impressive in the middle of the field playing both the MIKE and WILL role. Everything said previously suggests Gray should go within the first two days of the draft, so what’s the hold up? Well, Gray lacks a true trump card to an extent, and doesn’t have the ‘feel for the game’ that you might hope for in a top linebacker prospect. Additionally, while he found the ball frequently, his missed tackle rate (14.6%) is somewhat of a concern. Gray is a plus athlete and has shown some chops in coverage, so while he’s unlikely to ever play MIKE at the next level given size (6’1, 234lbs), I think he has potential to be an above-average off-ball linebacker at the next level due to his ability to find the ball, good work in coverage, and his athleticism.
Alarm Level: 7
Dwight McGlothern, per Yahoo Sports
Dwight McGlothern – CB, Arkansas (8)
At 6’2, 185lbs, McGlothern has the frame you want to see in a modern-day corner. In addition to frame, McGlothern has the production and tape to be a very intriguing corner prospect on day 3 of the draft. While not a world-beating athlete, McGlothern’s 4.47 40 is serviceable and his 1.50 10-yard split (tied 5th amongst corners) points to plus acceleration and the ability to stay with faster receivers at the beginning of the progression. His 30 1/2” arms are somewhat short, but McGlothern was a ball hawk in college, using frame and instinct to his advantage. Somewhat shaky in press and lacking the long speed to truly shadow some of the quicker receivers at the next level, McGlothern should be able to find a role as a productive outside corner in zone schemes. After spending his first two seasons at LSU, McGlothern transferred to Arkansas and was extremely effective, culminating his college tenure with a dominant 2023. In nine games, McGlothern registered three picks and 51.2 passer rating against, finishing the season with a stellar 91.3 PFF grade, which was driven by his 90.4 zone coverage grade. Most of the concerns regarding McGlothern stem from his ineffectiveness in the run game, where he often looked to be a less than willing tackler on tape. A change of mindset is not easy, but it is possible – he may have to improve his ability to be a junkyard dog in the run game before he even receives consideration for playing time at the next level. That being said, I’d happily take the risk on McGlothern on day 3. It’s not every day you find a 6’2 outside corner who had excellent production in the SEC slip through the cracks to the later rounds of the draft.
Alarm Level: 8
Kitan Oladapo, per Brian Murphy, Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Kitan Oladapo – S, Oregon State
A team captain for Oregon State, Oladapo is an experienced leader as a strong safety who can bring a competitive edge to an NFL secondary on day 1. I’ve seen evaluations on Oladapo’s draft prospects vary wildly, from potentially sneaking into day 2 all the way down to UDFA. I really like Oladapo. He plays smart and has few apparent weaknesses on tape. While not a thumper at safety, Oladapo still plays downhill and uses size (6’2, 216lbs) and leverage to his advantage. I was most impressed by Oladapo’s abilities in coverage; more than willing to line up in the slot and play man, Oladapo is a PBU expert and a ballhawk downfield. His arm length at his size (32 3/8”) is somewhat limiting, but Oladapo makes up for it with instinct. Oladapo was asked to do it all at OSU and did so with success. He spent a bit more than a third of his snaps playing in the box, and another third lined up in the slot, while also playing 20% of his snaps as a deep safety. There’s plenty of tape of him being asked to join the blitz, and he was effective bringing pressure when doing so. In his senior season at OSU, Oladapo was at his best, earning an 88.3 PFF grade, comprised of an 84.4 grade in coverage and a 91.3 grade in run defense. While the upside may not be elite with Oladapo, I believe the floor is very high and he warrants consideration early on day 3 (at the latest). Oladapo can step into a pro locker room and make a presence early and has the well-rounded skillset to make an impact early. I think Oladapo will have a long and productive career in the NFL.
Alarm Level: 7