Wake Up! – NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers (Offense)

Five potential offensive steals that could go late in the NFL Draft

Jacob Cowing, per Mark J. Robilas, USA Today

Franchises are built on day 1 of the NFL draft, but they’re maintained by discovering diamonds in the rough on day 3. The Patriots were the prime example for years and the Chiefs have continued that legacy, consistently fielding difference makers they selected in the later rounds. Sleepers aren’t usually obvious – there’s typically a reason they fall to where they do in the Draft, and these evaluations are given by folks with far more experience than I. With that said, I’ve identified five players on each side of the ball that I find very intriguing who are likely to fall to day 3. There’s some consistency to my criteria – I often look for players who are counted out for a specific trait (usually size or age) but are otherwise very productive players. Much to the chagrin of many, you’ll see that I also frequently site PFF grades. While not perfect, I do think they provide value and are a decent indication of success. I also won’t pretend to have watched every snap these guys have played, while PFF has. I also may or may not have worked there as a younger man and have belief in their system of evaluation.

I assign each player an ‘Alarm Level,’ from 1-10, which is an indication of how enthusiastic I am about the player’s prospects. You can see the scale below:

Alarm Level:

1 = Turn off the alarm and go back to bed

5 = 10-minute snooze

10 = Jump out of bed – it’s time for school

Without further ado, here are my five sleepers for the later stages of the 2023 NFL Draft on the offensive side of the ball, in no particular order.

Isaiah Davis, per Landon Dierks, Mitchell Republic

Isaiah Davis – RB, South Dakota State

Projecting an FCS player’s tape to the next level is far from a perfect science. There have certainly been plenty of success stories, but there have been more failures. The tape typically looks electric, given the level of competition, but it can be difficult to know exactly how much one should caveat the level of dominance they’re seeing. Isaiah Davis’ numbers are nowhere short of phenomenal. Last season Davis rushed for just under 1600 yards on 6.7 yards per tote, finding the endzone 18 times, and adding 23 catches for 199 yards. At 6’0, 218lbs, Davis is built to handle a three down role and is serviceable enough as both a blocker and pass-catcher to justify the snaps. He posted a 94.9 PFF grade and was third in the nation in carries of 15+ yards, fourth in missed tackles forced, and eighth in yards after contact. His tape tells you why; Davis is a patient runner who makes the right read and is exceptionally difficult to bring down. His stock is knocked mainly due to lack of top-end speed (4.57 40) and level of competition. I really like this prospect, and I’m not overly concerned about his translation to the next level. Jaleel McLaughlin exceeded all expectations as an undrafted rookie last year out of Youngstown State, despite finishing his college career as the NCAA all-time leading rusher. I expect Davis to be slept on in a similar manner, but I think his skillset as a downhill rusher will carry over to the pros without issue and I do truly believe Davis can have success in a three-down role year one.

Alarm Level: 8

Jacob Cowing – WR, Arizona

In most classes, Cowing would have a pretty good chance of being a Day 2 pick (and still may be one this year), but in such a gifted class, Cowing’s age and size will likely push him into the fourth or fifth round. If someone has the chance to pick him there, they’re getting incredible value. Granted, Cowing is an older prospect at 23, but he has been terrifying defenses for years, most recently putting up 89 catches for 868 yards and 13 touchdowns at Arizona. Few in this class are more technically gifted as a route runner than Cowing, and he has a natural gift for separation that will easily translate in the NFL. He looks quick on tape, but the 4.38 he ran at the combine was a pleasant surprise in my opinion. Size is definitely an issue at 5’8, 168lbs, but Cowing plays much bigger than his frame, as evidenced by his knack for finding the endzone. Certain aspects of his game are absolutely reminiscent of Tank Dell, who was knocked for similar concerns despite excellent production. Cowing can play on the outside but is definitely best served in the slot. If he’s given the keys to the Lamborghini as a starting slot early in his rookie year, I would stake my reputation on Cowing being among the most statistically relevant rookie receivers.

Alarm Level: 9

Tahj Washington, per Kirby Lee, USA Today

Tahj Washington – WR, USC

Similarly built to Cowing, the 5’10, 174lb Washington will likely be overlooked for the same reasons. Washington will turn 23 shortly after the draft and has had a successful college career, spending his last three seasons as a reliable option for Caleb Williams at USC. Some pundits have Washington above more oft-lauded teammate Brenden Rice (I do not), and with good reason. Despite his size, Washington plays an extremely physical brand of football and knows how to win from the slot. His contested catch rate is remarkable for a player below 6’, yet he’s best after the catch with the ball in his hands. His agility as an open field runner and his pedigree as a returner bode well for his further development as a route runner, particularly in tight spaces. He has already shown the ability to win at all three levels of the field and has plus athleticism to hang his hat on. While Washington will probably be limited to a gadget role and special teamer out of the gate, I have every reason to believe he can develop into an effective slot at the pro level sooner rather than later.

Alarm Level: 6

Ben Sinnott, per Peter Aiken, Getty Images

Ben Sinnott – TE, Kansas State

I haven’t seen anyone that’s nearly as excited about Sinnott as I am, and I can’t figure out why. In a really underwhelming tight end class, I would expect more hype out of some of Sinnott’s traits. I may be intoxicated by Sam Laporta’s success as a rookie and their similarities, but I think with good reason. At 6’4, 250lbs, Sinnott is not a jump-ball redzone threat, but is versatile as an athletic receiver either inline or lined up in the slot. A third team All-American in 2023, Sinnott posted an 82.0 PFF grade last season on 48 catches and 669 yards and found paydirt six times. Sinnott’s blocking may keep him off the field at times early in his career, but he is a willing blocker and had some decent tape in the run game. Sinnott first came onto my radar during the Senior Bowl and the week of practice that preceded it, as he looked reasonably polished as a route runner and served as an effective safety blanket during the game itself. Sinnott’s athleticism at the position is extremely intriguing, and his testing at the combine had to have raised eyebrows in front offices. His 4.68 40 time is above average for his size, but it was the other metrics that were borderline elite. His 40” vertical was the best among tight ends and seventh best among all offensive players, and his 10’6 broad jump also paced all tight ends. Of all his testing, it was his 6.82 three cone that cemented his spot on my love list and confirmed what I had seen on tape. This figure was also the best among tight ends, and fifth best for any tight end in the last ten years. This rare agility at his size projects very well onto what was good production in college and helps to explain how he was fourth in the nation among tight ends in missed tackles forced last year. I would not expect Sinnott to replicate LaPorta’s success as a rookie, and he may not see a ton of snaps depending on his situation, but I feel that he has all the tools to develop into one of the better catch-first tight ends in the league.

Alarm Level: 7

Javon Foster, per Matthew Visinsky, Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Javon Foster – OT, Missouri

While not the most athletic prospect, Foster has the pedigree of a tackle that should go higher than day 3. Foster has been a stalwart at left tackle for Mizzou for three years, logging over 2000 snaps in the SEC in his career, and culminating with first team All SEC and third team All-American designations in 2023. For reference, the other All-American tackles in ’23 are named Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Latham, and Fautanu. In his three years as a starter, Foster never had a PFF grade lower than 80.3, and posted a career high 84.8 in 2023. Why is Foster likely to go on day 3, then? Well – he’s no spring chicken. 2023 was his sixth college season, and while I cannot find his age anywhere, he’s very likely 23, if not 24. Foster also lacks the athleticism that the blue-chip tackle prospects possess and was among the slower tackles at the combine. He doesn’t necessarily make up for this with size, either, standing at 6’5 ½ and weighing in at 313lbs. Foster is a tackle, though. At 34 5/8”, his arms are some of the longest in the class, and his reach gives him the ability to make up for what can be a slow first step at times. Foster is a polished zone blocker and has been one of the more effective run blockers in the country, but his work in the passing game needs focus. During the Senior Bowl, I watched Marshawn Kneeland make Foster look foolish on multiple occasions. If Foster is to develop into a set-it-and-forget-it left tackle in the NFL, he’ll need to improve his footwork, but that’s more than possible with good coaching. I really like Foster because you don’t often find an effective, battle-tested tackle on day 3. If push came to shove, I think you could feel OK about trotting Foster out to start at left tackle in the NFL week 1, and if he takes steps to develop, he could be an above-average starting left tackle in the league, which is hard to find past the first 40 picks of the draft.

Alarm Level: 7